Clasamentul a fost calculat pe baza a trei criterii:
gradul de nedreptate sociala din tara, capacitatea
populatiei de a face opozitie civila si
dorinta oamenilor de a iesi la proteste si cuprinde 85
de state.
Topul tarilor unde sunt posibile astfel de manifestari este
condus de Kenya si Camerun, urmate de Pakistan, Nigeria si
Indonezia. Romania ocupa locul 37 in acest clasament, fiind
lider in Uniunea Europeana.
La coada clasmentului, cu probabilitate redusa de a se confrunta
cu astfel de situatii, se afla Suedia, Austria, Canada, Danemarca
si Germania.
Autorul analizei precizeaza totusi ca acest clasament nu este
unul oficial, ci este intocmit ca un exercitiu, pe baza criteriilor
prezentate mai inainte, in contextul recentelor
miscari de protest din lumea araba.
Iata si clasamentul intocmit de catre departamentul de
analize rapide al Wall Street Journal:
Pozitia | Tara | Probabilitatea de a izbucni o revolta |
1. | Kenya | 100.0 |
2. | Cameroon | 94.5 |
3. | Pakistan | 90.8 |
4. | Nigeria | 88.9 |
5. | Indonesia | 80.3 |
6. | Philippines | 80.1 |
7. | Guatemala | 79.2 |
8. | Morocco | 78.7 |
9. | Jordan | 78.6 |
10. | Azerbaijan | 78.6 |
11. | Vietnam | 77.9 |
12. | Algeria | 77.4 |
13. | Libya | 76.9 |
14. | India | 76.6 |
15. | Uzbekistan | 76.4 |
16. | Egypt | 75.3 |
17. | Bolivia | 74.7 |
18. | Georgia | 73.4 |
19. | Turkmenistan | 71.3 |
20. | Dominican Republic | 69.6 |
21. | Tunisia | 69.1 |
22. | Ukraine | 68.2 |
23. | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 67.3 |
24. | Colombia | 67.1 |
25. | South Africa | 67.0 |
26. | Peru | 66.2 |
27. | Iran | 65.7 |
28. | Venezuela | 65.5 |
29. | Belarus | 65.1 |
30. | China | 64.3 |
31. | Kazakhstan | 64.0 |
32. | Macedonia | 63.8 |
33. | Brazil | 62.0 |
34. | Ecuador | 60.4 |
35. | Mexico | 59.4 |
36. | Turkey | 59.1 |
37. | Romania | 59.0 |
38. | Costa Rica | 58.8 |
39. | Saudi Arabia | 58.4 |
40. | Russia | 58.0 |
41. | Thailand | 56.2 |
42. | Argentina | 54.6 |
43. | Chile | 54.1 |
44. | Croatia | 50.5 |
45. | Malaysia | 49.2 |
46. | Lithuania | 49.0 |
47. | Taiwan | 48.7 |
48. | Bahrain | 47.9 |
49. | Latvia | 47.6 |
50. | Uruguay | 47.2 |
51. | Kuwait | 46.7 |
52. | Israel | 46.1 |
53. | Poland | 45.8 |
54. | Bulgaria | 44.0 |
55. | Slovakia | 42.5 |
56. | Hungary | 40.5 |
57. | Portugal | 40.3 |
58. | Estonia | 39.5 |
59. | Qatar | 38.8 |
60. | Greece | 38.8 |
61. | United Arab Emirates | 38.6 |
62. | Czech Republic | 38.4 |
63. | Spain | 38.0 |
64. | South Korea | 37.5 |
65. | Italy | 36.2 |
66. | Slovenia | 35.1 |
67. | Hong Kong, China | 34.8 |
68. | France | 34.5 |
69. | New Zealand | 33.2 |
70. | United States | 32.3 |
71. | Japan | 32.2 |
72. | Belgium | 31.7 |
73. | Ireland | 31.2 |
74. | United Kingdom | 30.3 |
75. | Singapore | 29.9 |
76. | Australia | 29.2 |
77. | Finland | 28.9 |
78. | Netherlands | 28.7 |
79. | Norway | 28.5 |
80. | Switzerland | 28.2 |
81. | Germany | 28.2 |
82. | Denmark | 27.8 |
83. | Canada | 27.5 |
84. | Austria | 27.2 |
85. | Sweden | 26.7 |